START III/SORT

Part of the Duma’s objection was that the proposed cuts were not deep enough. A more radical treaty therefore might have a better chance of ratification. In March 1997, U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton and Yeltsin agreed to begin negotiating START III, which would bring each side down to 2,000–2,500 warheads by Dec. 31, 2007. Discussions then got bogged down over the ABM Treaty, as the Russians sought to link reductions on offensive systems with the maintenance of the established restraints on defensive systems. Nonetheless, it still suited both sides to demonstrate progress, and the risks of agreement were limited by making provisions reversible if circumstances changed. Proposals from both sides began to converge in 2001, and on May 24, 2002, U.S. Pres. George W. Bush and Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT). That treaty, sometimes referred to as the Moscow Treaty, was ratified without difficulty by both the U.S. Senate and the Russian Duma, in March and May 2003, respectively.

SORT would reduce strategic nuclear weapons to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads by Dec. 31, 2012. It did not require the elimination of delivery systems; it allowed nondeployed warheads to be stored instead of destroyed; and for verification it relied on mechanisms outlined in START I. Implementation of SORT proceeded without problems, although it was apparent from the beginning that difficulties might arise if START I were to lapse on schedule in 2009 without replacement. Agreement to negotiate a replacement to START I was made difficult by tensions on a range of issues, including the United States’ occupation of Iraq in 2003, Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, and U.S. plans to install ballistic missile defense systems in eastern Europe in order to deter a potential threat from Iran’s growing missile force.

New START

By early 2009, however, agreement between the two sides was possible, with a new administration in Washington under Pres. Barack Obama. Negotiations continued through the formal expiration of START I in December, and Obama and Russian Pres. Dmitry Medvedev agreed to work out a new treaty by December that would build on the verification arrangements of START I and reduce strategic weapons on each side to 500–1,000 warheads and 1,500–1,675 delivery systems. The negotiations proved to be more difficult than anticipated, but by April 8, 2010, agreement was reached on a new treaty that would limit each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads on up to 800 strategic nuclear delivery vehicles (deployed and nondeployed). Under the new treaty, no more than 700 of the delivery vehicles would be deployed ballistic missile launchers and nuclear-armed bombers; the rest would be systems for training and testing or launchers without missiles. Outside these limits, there was freedom to mix types of systems to suit the two sides’ respective force structures.

The targets set by the so-called New START are some 30 percent below the levels set by SORT in 2002. The new limits must be reached seven years after ratification by the Senate (which came in December 2010) and the Duma (which voted to ratify in January 2011). The verification procedures of START I have been streamlined to do away with redundant monitoring procedures—for instance, ending the permanent monitoring at Votkinsk and reducing telemetry access. The New START does, however, call for more on-site inspections.