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Mengistu’s government was unable to resolve the Eritrean problem, however, and expended large amounts of wealth and manpower on the conflict while rebellion spread to other parts of Ethiopia. Similarly, Siyaad proved unable to return the Ogaden to Somalian rule, and the people grew restive; in northern Somalia, rebels destroyed administrative centres and took over major towns. Both Ethiopia and Somalia had followed ruinous socialist policies of economic development, and they were unable to surmount droughts and famines that afflicted the Horn during the 1980s. In 1988 Siyaad and Mengistu agreed to withdraw their armies from possible confrontation in the Ogaden.
By 1989 Siyaad had refused serious political negotiations with his opponents, and fighting in Somalia spread southward and to Mogadishu. Amid increasing anarchy, the president fled in 1991, leaving Somalia to disintegrate into clan units.
Meanwhile, Mengistu refused to negotiate provincial autonomy, sparking the growth of ethnically based organizations. By 1987 the Tigre People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) controlled much of Tigray province. After a failed military coup in 1989, the TPLF advanced toward Shewa, attracting supporters from other areas. The TPLF joined with other forces to form the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which, with the EPLF, defeated Mengistu’s forces throughout 1990 and 1991. Mengistu fled in May 1991, and the EPRDF began organizing an ethnically based government. The EPLF declared itself the de facto government of Eritrea, which gained independence in 1993. The intense upheaval, destitution, and fragmentation in the Horn of Africa put into question the future of political and territorial alignments.
Harold G. Marcus