Assertive multilateralism in theory and practice
George Bush’s apparent triumphs in foreign policy failed to ensure his reelection in 1992, however. Instead, Americans turned their attention to domestic issues and seemed to hunger for change. Bush lost in a three-way race to Bill Clinton, a self-styled “New Democrat” with little experience or interest in world affairs. His campaign staff’s reminder to themselves—“It’s the economy, stupid!”—epitomized their candidate’s desire to take advantage of the U.S. public’s discontent over economic issues. Like Woodrow Wilson, however, who had the same desire, Clinton was harassed by overseas crises from the start.
Clinton’s foreign policy team, led by Secretary of State Warren Christopher and National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, included veterans of the Carter administration, which had emphasized human rights. They, in turn, were influenced by academic theories holding that military power was now less important than economic power and that the end of the Cold War would finally permit the United Nations to provide a workable system of global collective security. Clinton symbolized this neo-Wilsonian bent when he elevated UN Ambassador Madeleine Albright to cabinet rank. She defined American policy as “assertive multilateralism” and supported Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali’s call for a more ambitious UN agenda.
Three tests
The crises awaiting Clinton quickly revealed the pitfalls on the road to a new world order. The most abiding was the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the most immediate impact came in Somalia. That East African state had suffered a total breakdown of civil authority, and hundreds of thousands of people were dying of famine as warlords fought for control. During his last days in office Bush had approved Operation Restore Hope for the dispatch to Somalia of some 28,000 American troops. He styled it a humanitarian exercise, and in December 1992 Marines landed safely in Mogadishu, with the aim of turning control of the operation over to the UN as soon as possible. The Clinton administration, however, supported a UN resolution of March 26, 1993, that expanded the mission to include “the rehabilitation of the political institutions and economy of Somalia.” Albright lauded this effort at state-building as “an unprecedented enterprise aimed at nothing less than the restoration of an entire country.”
Clinton officials articulated the principles of their new foreign policy in a series of speeches. Lake explained on September 21, 1993, that democracy and market economics were in the ascendant, so that, just as the United States had previously labored to contain communism, it should now work for “enlargement” of the community of free nations. Albright outlined the moral, financial, and political benefits of multilateral action in regional disputes, and Clinton defined his goal as nothing less than “to expand the reach of democracy and economic progress across the whole of Europe and to the far reaches of the world.” Within three weeks of Lake’s speech this bold agenda began to unravel. On October 3–4, more than 75 U.S. Army Rangers were wounded in an effort to capture the renegade Somali warlord General Maxamed Farax Caydiid (Muḥammad Farah Aydid), and two American corpses were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu before television cameras. American opinion immediately turned against the intervention, especially when it was revealed that the troops were fighting under UN commanders and had been denied heavy weapons by Secretary of Defense Les Aspin. Clinton was obliged to announce a deadline of March 31, 1994, for evacuation of the troops, which in turn meant abandoning the state-building mission.
Just a week later, the enlargement agenda received another public relations blow when a mob of armed Haitians at Port-au-Prince forced the withdrawal of American and Canadian troops sent to prepare the return of the ousted president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. That dispute dated from September 30, 1991, when a military coup led by Brigadier General Raoul Cédras had exiled Aristide and imposed martial law. The United States imposed economic sanctions but was preoccupied for the rest of Bush’s term with the question of what to do with the thousands of Haitian boat people fleeing the country for American shores. Clinton embraced Aristide despite his communist sympathies and record of political violence and brokered the Governors Island accord of July 1993, in which Cédras agreed to reinstate Aristide in return for amnesty and the lifting of sanctions. Aristide refused to return, however, until the generals had left Haiti, while Cédras stepped up violence against Aristide’s supporters. It was then that a U.S. ship attempted to intervene, only to be turned back at the dock.
The embarrassments in Somalia and Haiti and the indecision on Bosnia and Herzegovina, combined with military budget cuts exceeding those planned by Bush, provoked charges that the Clinton administration had no foreign policy at all, or an exceedingly ambitious one run from the UN and beyond the capabilities of the U.S. armed forces. To stem the criticism, Clinton issued a presidential directive that outlined precise rules for future deployments abroad. They included the stipulations that a given crisis be susceptible to a military solution with a clearly defined goal, that sufficient force be employed, that a clear end point be identifiable, and that U.S. forces go into combat only under U.S. command. Trimming their sails, Lake and Albright said that the administration would henceforth take multilateral or unilateral action on a case-by-case basis. Dubbed “deliberative multilateralism,” it seemed another example of reactive ad hoc policy making.
A final crisis inherited by Clinton was sparked by the North Korean dictator Kim Il-Sung’s apparent intention to build nuclear bombs and the missiles needed to deliver them. One of the few remaining hard-line Communist regimes, North Korea had agreed to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985 as the price for receiving Soviet technical aid for its civilian nuclear program. When communism collapsed in Europe, the North Koreans also gave signs of wanting to shed their pariah status. In December 1991 they joined South Korea in a pledge to make the peninsula nuclear-free (thereby obliging the United States to withdraw its own nuclear warheads from the South). By the end of Bush’s term, however, evidence had come to light that the North Koreans were cheating, first, by diverting enriched uranium to military research and, second, by inhibiting inspections. They threatened repeatedly to suspend adherence to the NPT.
Western experts pondered what Kim was up to. Did he mean to go nuclear, perhaps as a last-ditch demonstration to prevent the collapse of his regime? Did he intend to sell bombs and missiles abroad to boost his failing economy? Or did he intend to use his nuclear potential as a bargaining chip in exchange for foreign economic aid? The situation posed a terrible dilemma for the Clinton administration, which had made nonproliferation a top priority. Sooner or later the United States would have to threaten the use of force, either because Kim refused to allow inspections or because inspections revealed that North Korea was in fact building bombs. A threat of force, however, might provoke the mysterious regime in P’yŏngyang into unleashing nuclear or conventional attacks on its neighbors. South Korea and Japan urged caution, while China, North Korea’s only possible ally in the dispute, refused to say whether or not it would support sanctions or help to resolve the dispute. The United States alternated between brandishing carrots and sticks, to which North Korea replied with a bewildering mix of signals that culminated in a June 1994 threat to unleash war against the South.
At the moment of greatest tension, when Clinton was engaging in a military buildup in East Asia and lobbying the UN for sanctions, he suddenly seemed to lose control of policy altogether. On June 15, former President Carter travelled to P’yŏngyang and engaged Kim in negotiations that resulted, four days later, in a tentative agreement. North Korea would gradually submit to international inspections in return for a basket of benefits. At times Clinton seemed unaware of Carter’s activities and at one point even denied that the former president’s words reflected American policy. Negotiations were then delayed by the death of Kim and the accession to power of his son Kim Jong Il. On August 13, however, a nuclear framework accord was signed under which North Korea would remain within the NPT and cease to operate the reactors from which it extracted weapons-grade plutonium. In exchange, the United States would provide North Korea with two light-water reactors, to be paid for by Japan and South Korea, and guarantee North Korea against nuclear attack. The United States would also supply oil to the North to compensate for the energy production lost during the transition and would work toward full diplomatic and economic relations. Because it appeared to reward nuclear blackmail and did not preclude possible future cheating, the pact was criticized in Congress. For the moment, however, Carter’s intervention relieved the crisis.
Almost the same course of events followed in Haiti, only this time with Clinton’s approval. Through September 1994 the Haitian military junta continued its harsh rule in defiance of sanctions and American threats. Clinton’s credibility would suffer further if he failed to act, and he was also under pressure from the Congressional Black Caucus to help Haiti and was anxious to stem the flow of refugees. After receiving UN approval for an invasion, Clinton issued an ultimatum on September 15, advising General Cédras that “Your time is up. Leave now or we will force you from power.” Republicans, however, warned of more bloodshed like that in Somalia if the United States sent in Marines, and so Clinton searched for a way to oust the junta without having Americans fight their way in. On the 17th, even as military units converged on Haiti, he sent Carter and a blue-ribbon delegation to Port-au-Prince. After 36 hours of intense discussions, Cédras agreed to leave the country and order his soldiers not to resist a U.S. occupation, in return for amnesty. The first contingents of Operation Uphold Democracy arrived on the 19th, and President Aristide returned home on October 15. U.S. forces remained until March 1995 and were then replaced by a UN force.
Developments in free trade
Throughout 1993 and 1994 Republicans accused Clinton of naïveté and vacillation. Opinion polls showed that the American people lacked confidence in U.S. foreign policy, while European and Asian leaders were dismayed by what they saw as weak leadership from Washington. On issues of international trade, however, Clinton scored major successes, albeit with Republican help. As befitted a president who wanted to focus on the economy, Clinton stood forth as the strongest proponent of free trade in decades. First, he completed negotiations begun under Bush for a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to forge a common market among Canada, Mexico, and the United States and won its passage in Congress in November 1993. Clinton then dispelled fears that NAFTA might divide the world into hostile commercial blocs when he won passage in December 1994 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), dedicated to reducing trade barriers worldwide and establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The November 1994 elections transformed the environment of American foreign policy making by giving the Republican Party control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years. Indications were that the new Congress would insist on higher military budgets but be less willing to see armed forces deployed in regional crises. Beyond that all one could predict was that Clinton’s foreign policy was likely to tilt more toward the “realistic” direction and less toward the “idealistic” one that had informed the sanguine rhetoric of assertive multilateralism.
Europe adrift after the Cold War
For 45 years Europe had been divided by the Iron Curtain. Though tragic and often tense, the Cold War nonetheless imposed stability on Europe and allowed the western sector, at least, to prosper as never before. The end of Communism, therefore, posed several vexing questions. Would a united Germany dominate Europe economically and waver dangerously between East and West in foreign policy? Could the new democracies of east-central Europe achieve Western levels of prosperity and avoid the ethnic strife that had sparked two world wars? In the short run, the worst fears were not realized. Chancellor Kohl took every opportunity to reaffirm Germany’s commitment to the idea of a united Europe, while the high cost of rehabilitating the former East Germany allayed fears of a German economic hegemony. Europe’s long-term stability, however, depended on the continued vitality of institutions built up during the Cold War. Would the EC and the NATO alliance remain vigorous in the absence of a Soviet threat?
In the 1980s the dynamic Jacques Delors had revived the momentum of European integration by promoting the Single European Act, under which EC members were to establish full economic and monetary union, with substantial coordination of foreign and social policies, by 1992. Most of Delors’s provisions were embodied in the Maastricht Treaty approved by the 12 EC member states (Spain and Portugal had been admitted in 1986) in December 1991. This unprecedented surrender of national sovereignty worried governments and voters, however. A national referendum in France barely approved the treaty, the Danes rejected it the first time around, and the government of John Major, Thatcher’s successor as British prime minister, nearly fell from power before persuading Parliament to ratify Maastricht in July 1993. The treaty went into effect on November 1. In order to create “an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe,” Maastricht replaced the old EC with a new European Union (EU), enhanced the powers of the European Parliament at Strasbourg, promised monetary union by 1999, promoted common policies on crime, immigration, social welfare, and the environment, and called for “joint action” in foreign and security policy. The EU promptly voted to “broaden” as well as “deepen” its membership by approving the applications on March 29 of Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Austria (although Norwegian voters later rejected joining).
Relations with Russia
Even the prospect of a unified Europe could not ensure peace and prosperity unless two other issues were addressed: the future of NATO and the relationship among the EU, the United States, and the struggling democracies of eastern Europe, above all Russia. Western relations with the new Russia began auspiciously. In early 1992 Yeltsin toured western Europe and signed friendship treaties with Britain and France in exchange for aid and credits. On January 3, 1993, Bush and Yeltsin signed the START II pact, promising to slash their long-range nuclear arsenals by two-thirds within a decade. After a personal appeal from former President Richard Nixon, the Bush administration also approved an economic assistance package for Russia, and Congress voted funds to help Russia dismantle its nuclear weapons. On April 4, 1993, at a summit meeting with Yeltsin at Vancouver, Clinton pledged an additional $1,600,000,000 in aid. It remained unclear, however, how much the Western powers could influence Russia’s future. Did outside assistance hasten Russia’s progress toward capitalism, or just help it to subsidize old, inefficient industries? Should Western leaders urge “shock therapy” to propel Russia quickly into capitalist modes even at the risk of high unemployment, or should they advise Yeltsin to reform slowly? Should NATO stand firm against signs of Russian assertion in foreign policy, or might accommodationist policies boost Yeltsin’s popularity at home?
Such questions became paramount after September 1993 when a coalition of Yeltsin’s opponents in the Russian Congress of People’s Deputies challenged his reforms and emergency powers and called for the President’s ouster. On September 21 Yeltsin dissolved the parliament, and the latter promptly impeached him in favor of deposed Vice President Aleksandr Rutskoy. Violence soon erupted between security forces and mobs of Communist and nationalist sympathizers marching in support of the insurgent deputies. On October 4, Yeltsin ordered army units to attack the parliament with heavy weapons, resulting in an estimated 142 deaths. He clearly was acting in “undemocratic” fashion, but he did so to suppress opponents of democracy who had been elected under the Communist constitution. When fully free elections were held in December 1993, however, ex-Communists and extreme nationalists led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky won stunning victories. Clinton’s expert on Russian affairs, Strobe Talbott, immediately called for “less shock, more therapy” in Russian economic policy, and Yelstin proceeded to dismiss his more liberal ministers. He also took a harder line in foreign policy in hopes of deflecting the criticism that he was too eager to please his Western benefactors. This ominous turn of events called into question the fundamental assumption of Russian partnership that underpinned Clinton’s foreign policy.
