U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century

U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21), U.S. congressional committee established in 1998 to examine how best to ensure U.S. national security in the first quarter of the 21st century. The U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21) became widely known as the Hart-Rudman Commission after its cochairs, U.S. Senators Gary Hart and Warren Rudman.

The U.S. Department of Defense, recognizing that domestic and international security environments had changed since the end of the Cold War, assigned the USCNS/21 the task of identifying emerging security threats, assessing America’s ability to respond to the changed environment, and making recommendations to improve the country’s response to the new security environment. The commission made 12 primary assumptions that it believed would remain true throughout the 25-year scope of the study. For example, the commission assumed that the United States would remain a dominant presence in the international community, that world energy consumption would continue to rely on fossil fuels, and that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction would continue.

Operating from these assumptions, the commission reached a number of conclusions. It determined, for example, that the United States would become increasingly vulnerable to hostile attack within its own borders and that the U.S. military superiority would not entirely protect American citizens. The commission also concluded that rapid advances in information and biotechnologies would create new vulnerabilities for U.S. security and that new technologies would divide the world as well as draw it together.

Another conclusion of the commission was that the national security of all countries would be increasingly affected by the vulnerabilities of the evolving global economic infrastructure. Part of that conclusion was based on the assumption that energy would continue to have major strategic significance. The commission also found that all international borders would become more porous, and the sovereignty of states would come under pressure but endure. Still another conclusion of the commission was that some countries would continue to fragment and even fail, creating destabilizing effects on neighbouring states. The resulting foreign crises would be replete with atrocities and the deliberate terrorizing of civilian populations.

The commission foresaw that U.S. intelligence would face more challenging adversaries in the future and that even excellent intelligence would not prevent all surprises. Moreover, the commission predicted that the United States would be called on to intervene militarily in a time of uncertain alliances and with the prospect of fewer forward-deployed forces. The commission concluded its findings by stating that the emerging security environment in the first part of the 21st century would require different military and other national capabilities.

The commission issued its final report in February 2001. Only seven months later, many of the commission’s conclusions were realized in the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.