Applications of systems engineering

The development of radically new systems

Radically new systems concepts are like inventions in ordinary engineering. Usually offering a substantial advance in overall performance, more than would be expected from a modest reproportioning of a known system, these clearly deserve special attention. On the other hand, in many cases it is impossible to predict accurately in advance of the development just what performance may be achievable in one or more of the critical elements of the new system. This leaves the systems engineer with a special problem in planning, which is usually addressed by establishing a minimum acceptable level of performance for the critical elements, with the rest of the system so arranged that whatever is realized beyond this level will appear as growth potential in the overall capabilities of the system. Thus definitive optimization studies may be postponed until the system is better understood.

The Nike Ajax missile system provides an example of the application of a radically new systems concept. The simple realization that the technology was available to provide a missile that could outmaneuver an enemy bomber taking evasive action was perhaps the systems invention in this case. (Guided missiles had been thought of before, but only for use against targets simpler than a rapidly maneuvering airplane.) In a more limited sense, however, the key idea in the overall systems concept was probably the decision to use a command-guidance system, as opposed, for example, to a homing system.

In the command system, both the radars used for tracking the aircraft and the intercepting missile and the computer that calculates how the missile should change course are on the ground. Such a system requires a minimum of control apparatus in the missile. It also allows the missile to follow computer-determined paths that are aerodynamically favourable. This was an especially important consideration at the time in maximizing the range achievable with available propulsion systems. It also allows, through the computer, maximum flexibility in dealing with evasive action by the target. On the other hand, adequate accuracy from the ground-tracking system becomes increasingly difficult in a command system as the range is increased, whereas a homing system is not so limited. Thus the adoption of the command system implied a belief that the ground radars would be accurate enough to provide satisfactory interception even at the limits of the expected field of fire. As the development turned out, tracking accuracies were more than adequate for the purpose, and the surplus provided growth potential toward still longer ranges and higher probabilities of interception. (In other circumstances, of course, a different choice might have been better.)

Long-term systems development

Thus far the description of systems engineering may seem to suggest that systems engineering efforts are essentially episodic. In many situations, however, there are important elements of continuity in what the systems engineer actually does. He is likely, in fact, to work on a series of similar problems as part of a long-term effort. In the case of telephone engineering, systems engineering groups have been set up formally as permanent parts of the overall organizational structure, each group having cognizance over some wide area of telephone technology. Thus continuity in this case may extend over many years.

Telephone engineering makes a particularly good example of this because of the importance of long-range forecasting for the telephone plant. One of the important responsibilities of the systems engineer in this field, for example, involves establishment of performance standards for new items in the plant. In most fields the systems engineer’s role in this respect is comparatively modest because performance standards represent value judgments established by others. In telephony the systems aspects are more conspicuous because, at any given instant, the plant is a composite of new and old items, designed at different times in different ways to meet a variety of assumed operating conditions. The pieces must all work together. Any new apparatus or system must be compatible with what already exists. In addition, however, if an orderly evolution of the plant is to continue, the new apparatus must also be suited to the traffic and service needs of the future. Thus the systems engineer’s responsibility, to provide a sort of long-term doctrine of performance standards, becomes very important.

Somewhat the same considerations affect the economics of new telephone systems. Here again a carefully developed forecast is essential. On the one hand, there are usually substantial economies of scale in communication apparatus. Thus it pays to take big steps in installing new equipment. On the other hand, capital charges on under-utilized equipment are likely to be excessive. Because the successive steps of design, production, and installation of a complicated system may take years, and because meanwhile both technology and service demands may change materially, the situation may increase in complexity, and the systems engineers may find that the choice of the most inviting system involves a calculated risk. They are responsible for judging the degree to which new possibilities should be exploited at any time. The principal result of assigning the telephone systems engineers a continuing organizational position and function is to put them into much more intimate contact with the technical frontier in communications. Their prime responsibility becomes that of monitoring the technical frontier to see what can be put to use in new operating systems.

Major technical advances may, of course, require many years between the original discovery or conception and the time when a practical design becomes feasible. The systems engineers keep in touch with the design and research work as it progresses throughout this interim period. They can exercise a valuable if indirect influence on the investigation simply by noticing weaknesses and errors that need correction for a project to be successful. It frequently happens that an extensive program of systematic measurements is called for before a new systems conception can be implemented, even when the basic conception is well established.

In many cases, technology suggests two or more competitive approaches to the same problem. If a continuing systems engineering organization exists, there is generally no need to make a premature choice between them. Rather, both lines can be followed until it is clear that one is superior or, perhaps, that each has its particular niche in the marketplace. In telephony, for example, this was the case in the long-continued rivalry between microwave transmission systems and those based on transmissions by a coaxial cable.

Applications to government and social problems

Thus far, systems engineering has been dealt with in relation to two principal fields of application. One field is industry, in which the prospects of a further expansion of systems engineering appear bright. Existing applications furnish many good models, and it seems likely that such extensions can take place without raising many unusual problems. The other major field of application has been in military and space systems, and this may have been the principal force in shaping the systems engineering field. The possibility of new applications of systems ideas in nonmilitary areas of government also has come under consideration in the realm of worldwide basic social and economic problems. On the other hand, systems engineering as practiced in other contexts does not automatically transfer easily to this new environment. General interest in the subject dates, however, only from the late 1960s, and the field is incompletely explored.

In one experiment in the conversion of military systems engineering techniques, a U.S. state government contracted with four large aerospace companies (each of which had a substantial capability in systems engineering) to study the following four topics: (1) a statewide information-handling system, including a plan for implementation, (2) a program for the prevention and control of crime and delinquency, (3) a waste-management problem, and (4) a systems approach to basic transportation problems.

None of the four studies led to proposals that seemed attractive enough to be implemented by the state, and, in this respect, the experiment was a disappointment, although in view of the wide scope of the problems attacked and the limited effort called for by the study contracts, the result is not surprising. On the other hand, the experiment was useful in advertising the possibilities of systems analysis as applied to civil problems and in illuminating difficulties that may be encountered in making such applications. The experiment stimulated interest in the civil uses of systems methods both inside and outside the United States.

The potential applications of the systems approach to governmental activities are so numerous and so varied, in both the developed and developing worlds, that an exhaustive catalog would be out of the question. Nevertheless, it may be worthwhile to list a few of the most conspicuous possibilities. The most obvious class is made up of massive engineering attacks on very broad socioeconomic problems. These are the situations that seem to have most in common with the applications of systems methods in developing weapons. They include new transportation systems, comprehensive attacks on pollution, and radical reconstruction of urban areas. A concrete issue is the problem of power-plant location, an urgent question in many advanced and developing countries. The systems overtones are obvious. Generating stations are customarily interconnected so that a new plant has an impact on the availability of power over a considerable region, and, of course, the effects of thermal and atmospheric pollution from a given plant may also be widespread.

Other applications of systems analysis in the social sphere tend generally to be smaller and more easily treated. One class consists of the extension of military budgeting and methods of financial control to the nonmilitary world. Another application has been the use of systems analysis to support the technical aspect of foreign-aid programs. Other fields include the possible application of specific items of new technology in such areas as crime detection, fire fighting, and traffic control. Still other studies involve specific aspects of such subjects as housing and other types of building construction. Such studies attempt to be useful rather than broad or necessarily definitive for all time to come.

The applications of systems analysis in civil government obviously still have far to go before their potentialities are exhausted. On the other hand, there are many reasons why these potentialities can be realized only slowly, if at all. Some of them are related to the inherent difficulty of the problems presented—the wide range of both technical and social considerations that may enter certain decisions, for example. Others reflect some of the common characteristics of governmental structure, the necessary bureaucratization of functions, for example, or the frequent problem of overlapping jurisdiction. Still other problems reflect the fact that existing systems analysts are trained preponderantly in the physical sciences and engineering and thus may not be well matched to the socioeconomic issues they are likely to confront, though most systems analysis groups working in socioeconomic questions try to balance their strength by adding appropriate missing skills. The most common problem, however, is probably simply the need to build up an adequate basis for mutual cooperation between systems analysts and government.

As such an evolution proceeds, there may be an increasing tendency for individual systems analysts to become identified with the substantive area in which they work and to lose their special relations to systems analysis as a distinctive field. Thus, it may be the ultimate fate of systems analysis to disappear as a separate field and instead become an important constituent of the planning function required in many parts of modern society.