The 2001 presidential elections were not recognized as free and fair by Western observers, and in October 2004 Lukashenko sponsored another successful referendum that allowed the president to serve for more than two terms. In 2006 the United Democratic Forces, a group of opposition parties and nongovernmental associations, backed pro-democracy candidate Alyaksandr Milinkevich in the presidential race, but Lukashenko was reelected with nearly 83 percent of the vote, according to the official count. Denouncing the results, opposition groups within Belarus as well as international observers accused the president of wielding his exceptional powers during the campaign to manipulate the media and intimidate his opponents; indeed, it was reported that some members of the opposition campaign teams had been detained and beaten. Protesters camped out in a public square in Minsk for several days following the election, but this and other demonstrations were broken up by the police. Another opposition presidential candidate, Alyaksandr Kazulin, was arrested at one such demonstration and imprisoned. In the September 2008 parliamentary elections the government reported a high voter turnout, with about three-fourths of eligible voters participating, but the opposition delegates did not win any seats. International monitors declared that the election could not be considered free and fair, and protests again were staged in the centre of Minsk.

Meanwhile, beginning in 2002, Belarus’s relations with Russia had deteriorated, partly over the desire of Gazprom, the Russian state-owned natural gas company, to raise the price of gas exported to Belarus to world levels. Another source of discord was Russia’s military conflict with Georgia in 2008, as Lukashenko failed to follow Russia’s lead in recognizing the independence of the breakaway Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Nevertheless, Belarus remained in the Russian orbit through its membership in Russian-backed regional organizations, including the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Community, as well as—to a lesser extent—the Union State and the CIS.

Lukashenko improved relations with the EU in 2008 when he agreed to the release of several political prisoners, including Kazulin, and appeared to adopt a more tolerant attitude toward the nongovernmental media. He also supported economic reforms, including the privatization of some state companies and the encouragement of foreign investment. The EU subsequently suspended a restriction that since 2006 had banned the president and most of his entourage from entering the EU. In 2009 Belarus joined the EU’s Eastern Partnership Program, which promotes ties between the EU and a number of countries in eastern Europe and the Caucasus region. However, by early 2010 the Belarusian government’s continuation of various repressive policies had renewed concerns in some EU capitals.

Lukashenko easily won another term as president in elections held in late 2010, but again there were protests by opposition supporters in Minsk on the fairness of the voting, as well as objections by EU and U.S. observers. As in 2006, large numbers of demonstrators were arrested or detained by authorities, as were most of the opposition candidates for president.

In April 2011 a bomb exploded on a crowded metro platform in Minsk, killing 12 and injuring more than 100. The blast heightened tensions in the country, which was struggling with a soaring budget deficit and an ongoing foreign exchange crisis. Sharply declining foreign currency reserves led to a devaluation of the Belarusian rubel, which shed more than 60 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar during 2011. The plummeting rubel triggered a wave of inflation, which peaked at almost 110 percent in January 2012. The Belarusian central bank responded by raising interest rates to 45 percent, the highest in the world at the time. A $3 billion bailout program, begun in 2011 and primarily financed by Russia, helped to stabilize the economy.

The economic crisis did little to weaken Lukashenko’s regime, and opposition parties boycotted parliamentary elections held in September 2012. The elections, which Western observers characterized as unfair and lacking transparency, saw politicians allied with Lukashenko returned to every one of the parliament’s 110 seats. In 2014 Lukashenko tried to broker a deal that would bring the Russian-backed military campaign in eastern Ukraine to an end. The so-called “Minsk Agreements” between Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Pres. Petro Poroshenko did not lead to a cessation in the fighting, but Lukashenko’s emergence as a would-be regional peacemaker led some to believe that his autocratic tendencies might be on the wane. The release of political prisoners ahead of the 2015 presidential election seemed to reinforce this conclusion, but that contest was, once again, marred by irregularities. In 2020 Lukashenko’s dismissive response to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic fueled what was perhaps the most serious threat to his rule thus far, and Belarus saw its largest street demonstrations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Thousands were arrested and scores were injured in confrontations with police ahead of an August 2020 presidential election that was characterized by widespread vote rigging. Opposition leaders were imprisoned or forced into exile, while Lukashenko was quietly sworn in for a sixth presidential term.

Lukashenko drew almost universal condemnation in May 2021 when he dispatched a Belarusian fighter jet to intercept a commercial airliner (Ryanair flight FR4978) and force it to land in Minsk. Once the plane arrived in the Belarusian capital, Lukashenko’s security forces boarded it and arrested opposition journalist Roman Protasevich. Western leaders stated that the action was nothing less than air piracy, but Lukashenko dismissed the accusations and claimed, without providing evidence, that Belarus was the target of a Western “hybrid warfare” campaign.

In September 2021 Belarus hosted tens of thousands of Russian troops for the massive Zapad (“West”) joint military drill. Zapad exercises were held every four years, and the 2021 event served as a demonstration of Russia’s commitment to the Lukashenko regime after the widespread protests of 2020. Russian troops returned to Belarus in January 2022, ostensibly for another joint military exercise, but their true purpose was revealed the following month when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces, attacking from Belarusian soil, struck south along the west bank of the Dnieper River and drove toward Kyiv. While the Russian attack was ongoing, Lukashenko staged a referendum on amending the Belarusian constitution; unsurprisingly, the result aligned with Lukashenko’s wishes. Belarus formally renounced its status as a neutral power, opening the door to a permanent Russian garrison that included nuclear weapons. The new constitution also gave Lukashenko lifetime immunity from prosecution.