Dysfunctional polarization, sometimes violent, marked the period following Hariri’s assassination and the subsequent withdrawal of Syrian forces. As the end of President Lahoud’s nine-year period in office approached in late 2007, the Lebanese political process faced a stalemate; the National Assembly’s attempt to select a successor was deadlocked by a boycott led by the pro-Syrian opposition (known as the March 8 bloc), which sought a greater share of political power and prevented the Assembly from achieving the necessary two-thirds quorum. As a result, Lahoud’s term expired in November 2007 with no successor named. The post remained unoccupied as the opposing factions struggled to reach a consensus on a candidate and on the makeup of the new government.

As the political crisis drew on, clashes between Hezbollah forces and government supporters—sparked by government decisions that included plans to shut down Hezbollah’s private telecommunications network—erupted in Beirut in May 2008. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah equated these moves with a declaration of war and mobilized Hezbollah forces, which swiftly took control of parts of the city. In the following days the government reversed the decisions that had sparked the outbreak of violence, and a summit attended by both factions in Qatar led to an agreement granting the Hezbollah-led opposition the veto power it had long sought.

Months of political impasse were ended on May 25, 2008, when Gen. Michel Suleiman was elected president. He reappointed Fouad Siniora, who had been prime minister since mid-2005, at the head of a new unity government soon thereafter, and, after several weeks of negotiation, the makeup of the new government was agreed upon. Reconciliation efforts continued, and in October 2008 a new election law that restructured voting districts was passed.

Voter turnout in the contentious 2009 election reached its highest point since the civil war period. The pro-Western March 14 bloc—named for the date in 2005 on which thousands gathered to protest Syrian military presence in Lebanon—emerged from the contest having maintained its majority. Its leader—Saad al-Hariri, the son of former prime minister Rafic al-Hariri—was named prime minister and was charged by President Suleiman with the complex task of forming a unity government. Weeks of negotiations with the opposition proved fruitless, however, and after more than two months Hariri announced that he would abandon attempts to form the government and would step down as prime minister-designate. The following week, however, President Suleiman once more designated Hariri prime minister and asked that he try again to form a government. Hariri continued his efforts, and in early November 2009, following months of negotiations, he announced that a unity government had been successfully formed. The cabinet included 15 seats allotted to Hariri’s majority, 10 seats for Hezbollah, and 5 seats for candidates nominated by President Suleiman.

The functioning of the unity government was impeded by political tension regarding the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon, charged with investigating the assassination of Rafic al-Hariri. In 2010, when it became apparent that members of Hezbollah were likely to be indicted in connection with the assassination, Hezbollah and its allies demanded that Lebanon reject the tribunal, which led to a standoff with Saad al-Hariri and his supporters. In January 2011, after Syria and Saudi Arabia failed to broker an agreement to reduce tension, a group of 11 ministers from Hezbollah and allied parties resigned from the cabinet, causing the unity government to collapse. Days later the tribunal issued sealed indictments, and in late June it issued arrest warrants for four suspects in the killing of Rafic al-Hariri. All the suspects were affiliated with Hezbollah, although the tribunal’s verdict in 2020 found no evidence that Hezbollah’s leadership played any part in the assassination and convicted only one of the four suspects.

At the end of January 2011 Najib Mikati, a centrist member of the parliament who had briefly headed a caretaker government years earlier, was nominated to be the new prime minister, having secured the support of a parliamentary majority made up of Hezbollah and its allies. Mikati’s appointment was opposed by Saad al-Hariri, who vowed not to participate in any government led by Hezbollah. Hariri’s supporters took to the streets in Lebanon, rioting and claiming that the collapse of the Hariri government and Mikati’s appointment as prime minister were the result of Syrian and Iranian intervention to establish Hezbollah as the dominant political faction in Lebanon. In June 2011, following five months of deliberations, Mikati announced the formation of a new 30-member cabinet with 18 of the posts filled by Hezbollah allies. No posts were assigned to members of the March 14 bloc.

Regional impacts on Lebanon during and after the Arab Spring

The Syrian Civil War, which began as an uprising against Syrian Pres. Bashar al-Assad in 2011, renewed the tension between Lebanon’s pro-Syria and pro-Western factions. Hezbollah, which feared loss of its lifeline to Iran, continued to back the regime and called for the conflict to be resolved through political dialogue, whereas Lebanese Sunni leaders organized anti-Assad demonstrations, which often developed into riots. Each side accused the other of covertly funneling weapons, fighters, and funds to its allies in Syria. Mikati resigned as prime minister in March 2013 in a move that was widely seen as related to the difficulty of managing tensions between those who supported Assad and those who supported his ouster. He was replaced by Tammam Salam.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economy, which had resisted the global financial downturn of 2008, was feeling the strain from the crisis in Syria. Apart from Lebanon’s dependence on the now devastated Syrian economy, a massive influx of refugees added extra pressure, especially on Lebanon’s lucrative housing market. The slowdown in economic growth left the country unable to keep up with debt payments from the massive borrowing of the post-civil war reconstruction, while corruption and political gridlock exacerbated the problem.

Already riven by strong factionalism and high stakes, Lebanon’s political system fell into a state of virtual paralysis in 2014 when Suleiman’s term as president expired. More than 40 attempts in the National Assembly to select a new president failed, largely because of boycotts by members of the March 14 bloc and the March 8 opposition bloc, which prevented the Assembly from reaching a quorum. These maneuvers slowed other legislative business to a halt for about two years before a deal was struck in which Saad al-Hariri, who belonged to the March 14 bloc, transferred his support to the March 8 bloc’s preferred candidate, Michel Aoun, in exchange for the prime ministership. Aoun took office in October 2016, and in December Hariri replaced Salam as prime minister. Meanwhile, legislative elections—first postponed in 2013 over security concerns—were repeatedly put off while the sitting legislators wrangled over the specifics of a new election law.

Amid this delicate compromise among the blocs, an unusual episode in late 2017 put a spotlight on the regional pressures underpinning Lebanese factionalism: while visiting Saudi Arabia in November, Hariri suddenly and unexpectedly announced his resignation as prime minister in a recorded address that included criticisms of Iran and Hezbollah. In Lebanon, both allies and rivals of Hariri (the latter including Aoun and Hassan Nasrallah) immediately suspected that Hariri was being held against his will by Saudi Arabia and that he had been pressured to resign. These suspicions were largely confirmed by later reports. Western and Arab diplomats, alarmed by Saudi Arabia’s bold and potentially destabilizing intervention in Lebanese politics, petitioned the Saudi government to release Hariri. In late November the Saudis acquiesced, sending Hariri back to Lebanon, where he quickly rescinded his resignation. Restored to his prime ministership, Hariri refused to give a detailed account of his time in Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials were no more forthcoming about their motivations for the unusual action, but in the media it was reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—the driving force behind Saudi foreign policy—had been upset with Hariri for refusing to take a more confrontational approach in his dealings with Hezbollah.