Zafy’s presidency and impeachment

In February 1993 Zafy was elected the first president of the Third Republic. His term of office was marked by a continual instability that stemmed from several factors. First, his coalition of support was composed of several distinct party formations, each of which was headed by someone with more political experience than Zafy. Furthermore, Zafy’s own supporters constituted only a minority in the coalition. Moreover, the National Assembly was extremely fragmented: the largest body of deputies was composed of independents with no party affiliation, many of whom had been elected on the basis of their personal appeal. Even the parties that were represented in the assembly were themselves loose agglomerations. In addition, Zafy’s election had disturbed an informal balance between people of the plateau and the côtiers, the people of the coast, in which the people of the plateau had largely dominated the public administration and the professions while those from coastal groups had dominated politics. With the exception of the short-lived Ramanantsoa and Ratsimandrava regimes, the Malagasy president had always been drawn from a coastal group. Under Zafy’s regime, resentment of this shift of balance led to continued opposition from Ratsiraka supporters in the form of a demand for a federal state.

Madagascar’s pronounced economic difficulties also continued during Zafy’s administration. Economic survival—to say nothing of development—depended on aid from foreign donors, most notably the World Bank and the IMF. However, this placed Zafy at odds with one of his sources of political support, a section of the Malagasy elite that was opposed to dependency on foreign grants, especially when these were made conditional on certain actions on the part of the Malagasy government. They were particularly opposed to the conditions imposed by the World Bank and the IMF for continued privatizations and for further reductions in the size of government and in government subsidies for consumption, measures that would have harmed both the bureaucracy and the urban poor, two groups that had formed the basis of Zafy’s anti-Ratsiraka coalition. In lieu of accepting the IMF’s conditions for the resumption of aid, Zafy unsuccessfully sought private sources of investment.

Zafy attempted to strengthen his position through a referendum intended to allow the president, rather than the National Assembly, to name the prime minister. Although Zafy subsequently appointed a prime minister and a government more to his liking, opposition to his regime and consequent instability continued. By 1996 the opposition to Zafy had reached the point of street demonstrations and demands that he cease playing an active role as president; strikes reminiscent of those that had brought down the Ratsiraka regime continued. In July 1996 the National Assembly voted to impeach Zafy; in September the High Constitutional Court removed him from office and appointed an interim president charged with the task of organizing a presidential election.

Ratsiraka’s return to power

The results of the first round of the subsequent presidential election led to a runoff election between Zafy and Ratsiraka on December 29, 1996. Although Ratsiraka won the election, abstention was high and the total number of valid votes represented only about half the electorate. Ratsiraka’s victory did not signify an end to Madagascar’s political turmoil: because of the narrowness of Ratsiraka’s margin, Zafy and his supporters first contested the election results and then proceeded to hold protests and demonstrations. On February 4, 1998, the National Assembly voted to impeach Ratsiraka, but the vote fell short of the two-thirds majority required for a successful conviction. That same year, Ratsiraka oversaw significant constitutional revisions, including the provision for Madagascar to become a federal state, with a large measure of autonomy conferred on the six existing provinces. The constitutional revisions also strengthened the power of the president.

Both the country’s economic prospects and Ratsiraka’s political situation improved in mid-1999 with the signing of an agreement that guaranteed the release of further credits by the IMF, a measure that not only provided much-needed funds but also cleared the way for the release of other forms of aid and the reopening of foreign investment.

Political crisis and renewal

The 2001 presidential election brought one of the most serious political crises in the country’s history since independence. Although the official vote tally gave no candidate the necessary number of votes to declare victory outright, Ratsiraka’s main opponent, Marc Ravalomanana, claimed that he was the clear winner of the December election and that the results had been tampered with. Ravalomanana’s supporters staged numerous demonstrations as well as a national strike that lasted several weeks. In February 2002 Ravalomanana declared himself president and began establishing his administration, despite the fact that the international community did not recognize him as the legitimate leader of the country, and Ratsiraka still claimed the presidency. His supporters fought with those of Ratsiraka, each side eventually controlling various sections of the country. In late April the country’s High Constitutional Court declared Ravalomanana the winner of the disputed election, but fighting between the two sides did not cease until midsummer, when Ravalomanana’s forces were able to take control over areas previously held by Ratsiraka’s supporters. Ravalomanana secured recognition by the United States and France in late June and early July, respectively, and Ratsiraka fled the country shortly thereafter.

The political crisis weakened the country’s economy and overall stability. Ravalomanana promptly addressed the situation, implementing economic reforms and working tirelessly to entice foreign investors back to the country; his efforts won praise from foreign donors and international organizations, and in 2004 the IMF and the World Bank announced plans to write off nearly half of Madagascar’s outstanding debt.

Although Ravalomanana was gradually recognized by the international community as the legitimate leader of Madagascar, he was still faced with periodic unrest at home, including failed coup attempts in 2003 and 2006. In mid-2006 Ravalomanana announced that presidential elections would be held ahead of schedule in December of that year. Although some concerns over irregularities were noted, Ravalomanana won reelection to the presidency in December elections generally considered free and fair by international observers.