Civil war

The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the somewhat reluctant declaration of full independence on September 9, 1991. Once independence was achieved, turmoil—degenerating into civil war—plagued the new country; communists fought to retain power in the face of opposition from an alliance of Islamic and democratic forces. The presidential election of November 1991 was won by Tajikistan’s former communist strongman Rahman Nabiyev, and in March 1992 massive nonviolent demonstrations protesting his dismissal of opposition elements began in Dushanbe. After government forces opened fire on the demonstrators in April, violence soon spread to the southern city of Kŭlob and elsewhere. Opposition forces drove Nabiyev from office in September and briefly took power, but by November a government led by Emomali Rahmonov (from March 2007, Emomali Rahmon) and backed by Russian troops had regained control, ending the first phase of the civil war. A mass exodus to Afghanistan followed. Sporadic fighting continued as the Islamic fundamentalist forces and their allies, now based in Afghanistan, continued to launch attacks on the Russian and Tajik troops guarding the border.

By the mid-1990s the fighting had left tens of thousands dead and had displaced more than a half million people. In 1994 government and rebel elements reached a tenuous cease-fire, and Rahmonov was subsequently elected president. Sporadic fighting continued until June 1997, when a peace agreement brokered by the United Nations, Russia, and Iran essentially ended the war and produced some order in the strife that had characterized much of Tajik life since the country’s independence. The endemic political unrest had a deleterious effect on the country’s economy, which was dependent in large part on foreign aid.

Centralization and opposition sidelined

Following the agreement, rebels began to reenter political and social life, though small groups of dissenters continued to engage in attacks on government targets, and Rahmonov was elected to another term in office in 1999 with the support of some of his former adversaries. The flow of militants from Afghanistan slowed after the overthrow of the Taliban in late 2001, but smaller numbers of determined Islamic extremists continued to sift across the border, disrupting life and commerce in Tajikistan and other Central Asian states. Moreover, the fall of the Taliban led to an upswing in narcotics production in Afghanistan, and Tajikistan soon became a major transit point for Afghan heroin and opium headed for markets in Europe and elsewhere.

After his electoral victory in 1999, Rahmonov sought to establish the authority of the central government throughout Tajikistan, arresting some regional warlords and carrying out a campaign to disarm non-state militias. He also began what many observers saw as a drift toward authoritarianism, using the presidency to increase his personal power and steer the country away from the political pluralism called for by the 1997 peace agreement. The U.S.-led war against the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001 provided Rahmonov with a favourable climate for a crackdown against the Islamic opposition in Tajikistan. He accused the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT)—which under the peace agreement was one of the opposition groups entitled to a percentage of government posts—of extremism and began dismissing members of the party from their official positions. The party itself, however, remained legal in Tajikistan. Meanwhile, Rahmonov began to install his extended family and personal associates in dominant roles in politics and business in Tajikistan.

In 2003 Rahmonov’s position was strengthened when voters approved a referendum on a package of constitutional amendments that Rahmonov had requested as necessary to modernize the country. These included an amendment loosening presidential term limits, which made it possible for Rahmonov to hold the presidency until 2020.

The suppression of opposition parties and the muzzling of independent media intensified in the run-up to the legislative elections held in February 2005. Independent newspapers were closed, and opposition parties reported that local election boards had refused to place many of their candidates on the ballot. The final result was a lopsided victory for Rahmonov’s People’s Democratic Party, which won 52 of the 63 seats in the Assembly of Representatives.

Rahmonov himself was easily elected to another seven-year term as president with nearly 80 percent of the vote in November 2006. The IRPT, the largest opposition party, had not to fielded a presidential candidate after longtime party head Said Abdullo Nuri died earlier in year. Several other opposition parties nominated candidates, but the parties were too small and poorly known to pose a threat to Rahmonov.

In March 2007 Rahmonov dropped the Russian suffix (-ov) from his surname as an acknowledgment of Tajik identity. The change initiated a trend of "Tajikization" of surnames that was followed by many senior members of the government.

Rahmon won another term as president on November 6, 2013. A coalition of opposition parties and groups, including the IRPT, had attempted to nominate a candidate, but harassment by the authorities prevented her name from reaching the ballot. Five other parties were able to get their candidates on the ballot, but none were well-known enough to receive significant support.

In September 2015 the government banned the IRPT—until then the only legal Islamist party in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia—and placed it on a list of extremist and terrorist organizations. Several of the party’s leaders were later charged with having orchestrated a coup attempt in 2015 and were sentenced to life imprisonment in 2016 in a case that IRPT supporters and human rights groups denounced as politically motivated.

Meanwhile, seeking to capitalize on the country’s rich resources for hydroelectric energy, Tajikistan resumed work in 2016 on the long-awaited Rogun Dam, whose initial construction had been halted after the collapse of the Soviet Union and was heavily damaged in a flood in 1993. Upon its completion, the dam is expected to be the highest and tallest in the world and to double Tajikistan’s electricity-generating capacity. The project was once a source of tension with Uzbekistan downstream, but Uzbekistan dropped its opposition to the dam in early 2018 amid warming relations between the two countries. On November 16, 2018, Rahmon inaugurated the first unit of the dam, which began producing electricity even as construction continued. Representatives from Uzbekistan attended the ceremony.

One-party rule

In May 2016 voters in Tajikistan approved a referendum on a package of constitutional changes that included lifting term limits for President Rahmon and lowering the minimum age for presidential candidates from 35 to 30. The amendments further strengthened the Rahmon family’s already tight grip on power; the amendment concerning presidential term limits had been written to apply only to Rahmon, based on his special status as "Leader of the Nation" granted by the Assembly of Representatives in 2015, and the amendment concerning the age of presidential candidates was widely seen as a way to clear a path to the presidency for Rahmon’s son Rustam Emomali, who then became eligible for the presidency in late 2017. In 2020 he became chairman of the National Assembly, making him first in the presidential line of succession.

Another amendment in the 2016 referendum banned all political parties based on religion, imposing an additional obstacle for the opposition to reconstitute itself. In October 2020, with the main opposition fully sidelined, Rahmon won another presidential election without significant contest.