Abundance and Unemployment: Our Future
As described in my book Abundance, I believe that exponential technologies are driving us toward a world of ever-increasing abundance. Within the next 30 years, we will be able to meet and exceed the needs of every man, woman, and child. From there on out, I believe we are heading toward more of a Star Trek universe (minus the warp drive).
Advances in computation, sensors, networks, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, synthetic biology, and augmented/virtual reality are effectively democratizing access to low-cost and abundant energy, food, water, health care, and education to the point where it will be accessible to anyone on (or off) Earth.
While I’m very optimistic about the medium-term (30 years) and longer-term (100 years) future of humanity, my major concerns are for the next two decades. I believe the most pressing issue of our time is posed by AI and robotics.
I’m not concerned about artificial intelligence as the Terminator—far from that, given that I believe AI will be the most important tool humanity has for addressing our grand challenges. But I am concerned about the threat that AI and robotics pose in causing unemployment—basically, the significant and rapid loss of jobs, from truck driver to anesthesiologist. Don’t get me wrong: it is not the magnitude of this change that worries me. I believe that people are continually losing their jobs to increasing technology and ultimately “upskilling” themselves (in partnership with technology) to become even better workers. What bothers me is the speed of the coming change and the ability for society to adapt.
Humanity has seen large-scale change before. America went from a land of 84 percent farmers in 1810 to under 2 percent today. However, this time, technological unemployment is happening at unprecedented speeds. McKinsey & Co. predicts that 45 percent of jobs today will be automated out of existence in only 20 years.
How will we tame mass societal unrest when large swaths of the population are losing their jobs? Who will they blame? How will we solve this problem? This is what keeps me up at night.
However, I still have faith. I believe that, with advanced technology and capital, entrepreneurs will address all of humanity’s grand challenges—including technologically driven unemployment—over time. This optimism is what my XPRIZE and Singularity University are all about.
Even with this impending unrest, the future is still promising. I do not believe the blue-collar workers whose jobs will be displaced—cashiers, truck drivers, box boys, etc.—actually grew up dreaming of those jobs as their careers. Instead, that job was a means to an end, putting food on the table, and getting insurance for their family.
One of the likely outcomes of this technologically driven unemployment will be the creation of Universal Basic Income (UBI) programs by governments around the world, programs in which everyone earns an income independent of their profession and employment. Once we no longer have to worry about earning funds to meet our basic needs, it will allow us all to be uplifted and empowered to do what we truly want to do.
So, while I see the potential for societal unrest in the near term (10 to 30 years), I also see the foundation and framework for a truly better world. A world of abundance.
This essay was originally published in 2018 in Encyclopædia Britannica Anniversary Edition: 250 Years of Excellence (1768–2018).