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Observations on Man

work by Hartley

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probability of causes

  • Jakob Bernoulli
    In probability and statistics: The probability of causes

    David Hartley announced in his Observations on Man (1749) that a certain “ingenious Friend” had shown him a solution of the “inverse problem” of reasoning from the occurrence of an event p times and its failure q times to the “original Ratio” of causes. But Hartley named no names, and…

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