Independent Ceylon (1948–71)

Peace accord and discord

The Jayawardene government, facing a simultaneous resurgence of Sinhalese militancy by the JVP, became receptive to initiatives by the Indian government. After prolonged negotiations, an accord signed between India and Sri Lanka on July 29, 1987, offered the Tamils an autonomous integrated province in the northwest within a united Sri Lanka. Later that year, Tamil was recognized as an official language (alongside Sinhalese) by constitutional amendment. Meanwhile, the accord provided for the introduction of an Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) to enforce the terms of the agreement. However, the Sri Lankan government, the LTTE, and the IPKF disagreed over implementation of the accord, and the LTTE resumed its offensive, this time against the IPKF, which was trying to disarm it.

In January 1989 Jayawardene retired and was succeeded by Premadasa, who had defeated Sirimavo Bandaranaike in the December 1988 elections. Premadasa negotiated a withdrawal of the IPKF, which was completed in March 1990, and the battle against Tamil insurgency was taken up by the Sri Lankan army. On May 1, 1993, Premadasa was assassinated by a suicide bomber, who allegedly was linked to the LTTE. The prime minister, Dingiri Banda Wijetunga, was appointed acting president. In 1994 Chandrika Kumaratunga, the daughter of S.W.R.D. and Sirimavo Bandaranaike, became the country’s first female president. Rebel activity continued, and in 1999 Kumaratunga was injured in an assassination attempt blamed on the LTTE. She won reelection later that year. In 2002 a landmark cease-fire was negotiated between the war-weary LTTE and the government. Within just a few years, however, violence had resumed, and the cease-fire had virtually dissolved.

In addition to struggling with ongoing political unrest in the early 21st century, Sri Lanka was rattled by a tremendous natural disaster. In December 2004 the island was struck by a large tsunami that had been generated by an earthquake centred in the Indian Ocean near Indonesia. The wave killed tens of thousands of people and severely damaged the country’s northern, eastern, and southern coastal areas. Recovery was steady in the eastern and southern zones but was slower in the north because of the ongoing conflict there.

End of the war

Meanwhile, in 2005 Mahinda Rajapaksa, known for his strong stance against the LTTE, was elected president as head of a broad coalition of parties called the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which had gained a plurality of legislators in parliamentary elections the previous year. The conflict between the Tamil rebels and the government raged on, and in 2006 the LTTE was declared a terrorist organization by the European Union. In January 2008 the government formally abandoned the 2002 cease-fire agreement, and the fighting intensified. Over the following months, the government captured major strongholds of the LTTE. The town of Kilinochchi, the administrative centre of the LTTE, came under government control in January 2009. Government troops continued their advance into LTTE-controlled territory, cornering the remnants of the rebel fighters along the northeast coast by late April. The army launched a final offensive in mid-May and succeeded in overrunning and occupying the rebels’ last stronghold. The LTTE’s leaders (including founder Vellupillai Prabhakaran) were killed during the operation, and the LTTE effectively ceased to exist as an organization. The number of civil-war-related deaths in Sri Lanka since the early 1980s was estimated at between 70,000 and 80,000, with many tens of thousands more displaced by the fighting.

Reconstruction

Sri Lanka began to recover from its 26-year civil war during Rajapaksa’s second term. The economy showed sustained growth and reduced poverty levels, though some were concerned about ballooning debt and overreliance on foreign investment, especially from China. The government continued to enjoy the strong support of the country’s large Sinhalese majority, which was reinforced by a string of UPFA victories in provincial council elections in 2012. Rajapaksa’s administration, however, became increasingly associated with strong-arm tactics and other repressive measures against political opponents and various forms of dissent, as he centralized greater power in the executive branch and among his family members. A key development project was an expensive port in his home district of Hambantota, funded by loans from China but which had low returns on investment. In addition, relations with Western countries were strained over allegations of human rights abuses in Sri Lanka and the government’s refusal to allow independent investigations of the military’s treatment of Tamils at the end of the civil war in 2009.

Rajapaksa’s domestic popularity appeared to wane during 2014, as UPFA candidates won by considerably smaller margins in local elections than they had two years earlier. Late in the year he again called for an early presidential election, confident that he would easily win a third term if he held the election ahead of schedule. Unexpectedly, however, one of his cabinet members, Maithripala Sirisena, defected to the opposition and ran against him. Other UPFA members defected as well. In the early January 2015 polling, Sirisena scored an upset victory over Rajapaksa and was sworn in as president.

In April 2015 Parliament amended the constitution to restore the presidential two-term limit that had been removed in 2010. Having won the most seats in parliamentary elections held on August 17, the UNP formed a six-party coalition government. In June 2016, along with acknowledging that some 65,000 people who had gone missing during the civil war remained unaccounted for, the government approved legislation providing for the issuance of certificates of absence to the families with missing relatives, thereby allowing them to finally settle issues of inheritance, guardianship, and other related matters.

Growing debt and instability

The country’s enormous debt led to a balance-of-payments crisis in 2016. The government arranged a $1.5 billion bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and set out to increase its tax revenue. It continued to have difficulty paying its debt, however, and found itself becoming more indebted to China. In 2017 Sri Lanka leased its newly built Hambantota port to China for 99 years, and in 2018 it accepted a $1 billion loan from China to help repay maturing loans.

As the economy struggled to sustain growth amid the debt crisis and as political tensions brewed, Sirisena fired his prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, and appointed Rajapaksa in his place in October 2018. Wickremesinghe charged the move as unconstitutional and refused to step down. When it became clear in early November that Rajapaksa did not have Parliament’s support, Sirisena attempted to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections. Days later the move was suspended by the Supreme Court until it could rule on the legality of Sirisena’s action, thus allowing Parliament to convene and pass two votes of no confidence against Rajapaksa. The votes were rejected by Rajapaksa and his allies, and he continued to argue that he was the legitimate prime minister. After the Supreme Court ruled in early December that Sirisena could not dissolve Parliament, Rajapaksa stepped down to avoid further stalemate, and Sirisena reappointed Wickremesinghe.

Months later the country was shaken by its worst violence since the civil war. On April 21, 2019—Easter morning—eight explosions occurred in the vicinity of churches and hotels, leaving hundreds dead and hundreds more wounded. Another blast occurred near a church the next day, while other explosive devices were discovered and neutralized before being detonated. Authorities, who had been warned about the attack about two weeks in advance, identified a little-known Islamist militant group as the orchestrator of the attacks. The manner and sophistication of the attacks, however, suggested involvement from international networks. In the days that followed, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL; also called ISIS) claimed responsibility, though the waning organization offered no evidence of its direct involvement.

Ascent of the Rajapaksas and economic collapse

As the presidential election approached later that year, Sri Lankans were cognizant of the outgoing government’s ineffectiveness in addressing the debt crisis, its political instability, and its inability to prevent the Easter attacks. For many Sinhalese, Mahinda Rajapaksa and his brother Gotabaya offered a promise of progress, stability, and security. In November Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected to the presidency along ethno-religious lines—he lacked support from Tamil and Muslim voters, who were fearful of restoring to power a family known for its brutality in the civil war. Days after taking office, he appointed his brother Mahinda to be prime minister.

The following week, the government announced steep and sweeping tax cuts, fulfilling a campaign promise that was intended to spur investment and provide relief. But the timing of the tax cuts, on the eve of a pandemic that disrupted investment worldwide, proved poor.

As the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic spread throughout the globe in 2020, Sri Lanka reported much lower rates of infection and death than other South Asian countries, thanks to its quick and aggressive action, including an early nationwide lockdown and a high rate of testing. The legislative elections, originally slated for April, were delayed until August. When they were finally held with precautions in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19—voters were asked to bring their own pen with which to mark their ballots, for example—the SLPP, the party of the Rajapaksas, won just under two-thirds of the parliamentary seats. The results allowed the SLPP and its allies to amend the constitution to expand the powers of the presidency. But, while the government saw early success in handling the spread of COVID-19, the outbreak of the Delta variant in 2021 led to a massive surge in cases in May—and again in August.

Meanwhile, in May 2021 the government banned the importation of chemical fertilizers and pesticides but gave little warning to farmers. The sudden change led to a steep decline in crop production and a run on markets, placing further strain on a debt-laden economy already aggravated by the pandemic. The ban was subsequently lifted in November.

But the country was now in far worse straits than a mere debt crisis. Apart from food shortages and rapid inflation, the deficit had ballooned, owing to the 2019 tax cuts. As fuel prices skyrocketed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the government implemented daily power outages. Protests broke out in March and continued to escalate in the following weeks. In early April the Rajapaksas attempted to reshuffle the cabinet: family members relinquished their ministerial positions, and the opposition was invited to join. But the opposition, calling for the Rajapaksas to be replaced altogether, appeared to gain the upper hand as members of the ruling coalition defected.

Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned as prime minister in May, and Wickremesinghe was appointed in his place. Protesters were not satisfied, however, and continued to call on Gotabaya Rajapaksa to relinquish the presidency. On July 9 protesters stormed the presidential palace and began occupying it. Shortly afterward Wickremesinghe announced his intention to resign, and his own residence was later set on fire. President Rajapaksa remained unheard from, and his whereabouts were unknown, but the parliament speaker claimed that the president planned to resign within days. On July 13 he fled the country, and Wickremesinghe became acting president in his absence.