U.S. troop surge and end of U.S. combat mission

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U.S. Pres. Barack Obama went to the White House promising to focus attention and resources on the faltering war effort in Afghanistan. On February 17, 2009, he approved sending an additional 17,000 U.S. troops, on top of the 36,000 U.S. troops and 32,000 NATO service members already there. Three months later Obama took the rare step of removing a commanding general from a theatre of war, replacing Gen. David McKiernan with Gen. Stanley McChrystal. While McKiernan was shifting U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, Obama and other top officials had concluded that a more radical change was needed. McChrystal was brought in to implement a new strategy modeled after the surge strategy in Iraq—one in which U.S. forces would focus on protecting the population from insurgents rather than simply trying to kill large numbers of militants. The strategy also involved trying to persuade enemy fighters to defect and ultimately encouraging reconciliation between the Karzai government and Taliban leaders.

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Soon after assuming command, McChrystal concluded that he did not have enough troops to execute the new strategy, and in September 2009 he laid out his concerns in a confidential report, which was subsequently leaked to the press. McChrystal predicted that the war would be lost within a year if there was not a significant troop surge. After an intensive Afghan policy review—the second one by the Obama administration in less than a year—the president delivered a speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point on December 1 in which he announced a major escalation in the war effort, with 30,000 additional troops being deployed to Afghanistan by the summer of 2010. The new strategy led to an increase in U.S. combat deaths; notably, during the first three months of 2010, U.S. deaths were approximately twice what they had been over the same period in 2009.

The surge in U.S. forces was accompanied by a dramatic escalation of U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan—one of which killed Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. But the CIA also paid a price in late December 2009 when an al-Qaeda double agent detonated a suicide bomb at a Bagram air base in the eastern province of Khost, killing seven from the agency.

In early 2010 the surge began with an assault on the insurgent-held town of Marja, in the southern province of Helmand. U.S. Marines achieved a relatively quick victory, even as McChrystal planned a more ambitious offensive in Kandahar. Obama visited Afghanistan for the first time as president on March 28, delivering a stern message to Karzai that he needed to clean up corruption in his government. Karzai had won a new five-year term in an August 2009 election that was tainted by widespread allegations of fraud. Karzai vowed in his inaugural address to stamp out corruption in his government, but there were few signs in the short term that he had done so.

Meanwhile, Karzai announced that he would attempt to reconcile with the Taliban; he repeatedly invited Mullah Omar to meet with him, but the Taliban leader steadfastly refused. Under intense pressure from the United States, Karzai lashed out in April 2010 and even threatened to join the Taliban if the international community did not stop meddling in Afghan affairs. Troubled by the comments, the White House threatened to revoke Karzai’s invitation to meet with Obama in Washington, D.C., but the visit occurred as scheduled, with Karzai and Obama at least outwardly making efforts to mend their relationship.

Pakistan offered to mediate Afghan peace talks, but Pakistan’s ultimate attitude toward the Taliban remained a matter of great controversy. In February 2010, Pakistani security forces arrested the Afghan Taliban’s second-in-command, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a move interpreted by many U.S. officials as a reflection of Pakistan’s desire to work with the U.S. and Afghan governments to stem the group’s influence. But others, including Kai Eide, the former top UN official in Kabul, said Baradar had been a leading Taliban proponent of reconciliation and that the arrest was intended to scuttle efforts to end the war through a political, rather than military, solution.

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The military command structure in Afghanistan abruptly changed again in June 2010, when Obama replaced McChrystal with Gen. David Petraeus after McChrystal and some of his aides made disparaging remarks to a Rolling Stone magazine reporter about Obama and other top administration officials, including Vice Pres. Joe Biden, National Security Advisor James L. Jones, and special representative to Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke. The comments underscored festering tensions between U.S. military commanders in Afghanistan and some members of the Obama administration’s civilian leadership. In explaining the change of command, Obama said, “I welcome debate among my team, but I won’t tolerate division.” Despite the switch, Obama vowed that U.S. strategy in Afghanistan would not change. Petraeus, considered the leading architect of counterinsurgency doctrine in the U.S. military, was expected to continue McChrystal’s emphasis on protecting the Afghan population from insurgents, building Afghan government institutions, and seeking to limit civilian casualties.

Shortly after McChrystal’s dismissal, a cache of classified documents relating to the Afghanistan War was published online by the whistle-blowing journalistic organization WikiLeaks and prereleased to several newspapers, including The New York Times, Der Spiegel, and The Guardian. The information was mainly in the form of raw intelligence gathered between 2004 and 2009, and WikiLeaks cumulatively termed it the “Afghan War Diary.” It detailed previously unreported civilian deaths, indicated that a U.S. special forces unit was tasked with capturing or killing the persons on a list of insurgent leaders, revealed that the Taliban had employed heat-seeking missiles against aircraft, and suggested that the Pakistani intelligence service had been working with Taliban forces in spite of substantial U.S. aid to Pakistan for its assistance in combating militants. The U.S. government criticized the disclosure as a security breach but stated that the substance of the leak corresponded with other known intelligence and did not contain new information.

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Developments with some of the primary objectives of the war—apprehending key al-Qaeda leaders and dealing with the Taliban—were front and centre in 2011. Nearly 10 years after eluding capture at Tora Bora in Afghanistan, bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces on May 2, 2011, after U.S. intelligence located him living in a secure compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The operation, a raid carried out by a small team that reached the compound by helicopter, led to a firefight in which bin Laden died. The next month U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed for the first time that the U.S. government was holding reconciliation talks with the Taliban, although he stressed that efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict were still in the preliminary stages. Then, on June 22, Obama announced an accelerated timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, saying that the United States had largely achieved its goals by disrupting al-Qaeda’s operations and killing many of its leaders. The plan called for the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to be reduced by as many as 30,000 within a year, in preparation for a complete withdrawal of combat forces by the end of 2014. Hours after Obama’s announcement, French Pres. Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France would also begin to withdraw its 4,000 soldiers from Afghanistan. In September, efforts to end the long-running conflict suffered a setback when Burhanuddin Rabbani, a former Afghan president and a key figure in reconciliation negotiations, was assassinated by a suicide bomber.

A series of incidents in early 2012 heightened tensions between the U.S. and the Afghan government and provoked public outrage. In mid-January, a video showing U.S. Marines urinating on dead Afghans circulated in the media, drawing apologies from U.S. officials. Weeks later, Afghans rioted and held protests over reports that U.S. soldiers had disposed of copies of the Qurʾān at a military base by burning them. Then, on March 11, a U.S. soldier allegedly left an American base near Panjwai and broke into several homes, shooting dead 17 Afghans, mostly women and children. The incident provoked widespread demonstrations and a sharp condemnation from Karzai. Days later, the Taliban suspended participation in talks with the United States and the Afghan government.

Later that year NATO’s efforts to train and equip the Afghan army and police were hampered by an increase in attacks in which Afghan soldiers and police turned their weapons on NATO soldiers. These attacks forced NATO troops to institute more rigorous screening procedures and to suspend the training of certain units.

Meanwhile, in early 2012, U.S. and Afghan negotiators reached agreements regarding two issues that had been sources of friction between the Obama and Karzai administrations. The first agreement, signed in March, set a six-month timetable for the transfer of Afghan detainees held by the U.S. military to Afghan custody. The second agreement, signed in April, established that Afghan forces would oversee and lead night raids to apprehend or kill Taliban leaders. These raids, previously led by U.S. special forces, had since 2009 become a major component of the campaign against the Taliban. Afghan leaders, however, had long objected that the raids violated Afghan sovereignty and that surprise invasions of private homes ultimately alienated public opinion and increased support for the insurgency.

The agreements in March and April concerning detainees and night raids cleared the way for the United States and Afghanistan to reach a further agreement in May outlining a framework for economic and security cooperation between the two countries following the withdrawal of NATO combat troops in 2014. The agreement expressed the United States’ commitment to continuing military support for the Afghan government after 2014, although it left unanswered the question of whether or not some U.S. and NATO forces would remain in Afghanistan as trainers and advisers after 2014. That was to be determined by a separate pact, the Bilateral Security Agreement. Even though the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan remained deeply unpopular, many Afghans feared that a sudden withdrawal would allow the country to slip into civil war or chaos.

The issue of leaving foreign troops in the country after the end of NATO combat operations remained unresolved until the last half of 2014. Karzai—by then in the last months of his presidency—had refused to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement before leaving office, and the election of his successor was delayed by a lengthy recount. In late September 2014 Ashraf Ghani was finally inaugurated as president and immediately signed the Bilateral Security Agreement. The U.S. and NATO formally ended their combat mission in Afghanistan on December 28, 2014, but retained a reduced force of approximately 13,000 troops to support and train Afghan troops until a drawdown was implemented in 2020. A full withdrawal of U.S. troops, initiated in 2020 and continued into 2021, anticipated the end of U.S. deployment to Afghanistan, but the resurgence of the Taliban during the withdrawal left the country in similar straits to when U.S. forces had arrived 20 years earlier.