Indo-Pacific
- Also known as:
- Asia-Pacific
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Indo-Pacific, maritime region spanning the Indian and Pacific oceans that has become a significant focal point of geopolitical strategy and tension throughout the 21st century. The term has been widely adopted in policy discourse by the United States and its allies, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the countries of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Although Russia and China also prioritize the region strategically, they generally prefer the older term “Asia-Pacific.” While there is broad agreement on the general area of the Indo-Pacific, various countries interpret its exact boundaries differently, reflecting their unique strategic interests. The increased prominence of the Indo-Pacific concept has been considered by some analysts to be a response to the rise of China’s power and influence.
Economic and military significance
India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, wrote in 1946 that, “the Pacific is likely to take the place of the Atlantic in the future as a nerve centre of the world.” His words have proved farsighted, as the Indo-Pacific is now the world’s most rapidly evolving economic region. According to a 2022 White House report, the region is home to half the world’s people, nearly two-thirds of the world’s economy, and seven of the world’s largest militaries. The region is pivotal to global industries including manufacturing, technology, finance, energy, agriculture, fishing, and tourism. The Indo-Pacific is home to four of the world’s largest economies: the U.S., China, India, and Japan. Additionally, the ASEAN bloc, when viewed as a whole, ranks alongside those four countries as a global economic leader. As the U.S. and China contend for economic and geopolitical influence, their competing strategies significantly shape regional dynamics. In 2022 U.S. trade with the Indo-Pacific reached $2 trillion. Meanwhile, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative represents a focused effort to extend Chinese economic influence throughout the region, with total BRI investments exceeding $1 trillion as of 2023.
The region is essential for the prosperity of each country within it, yet also fraught with tensions, including territorial disputes in the South China Sea, tensions on the Korean peninsula and across the Taiwan Strait, and violent extremism in South and Southeast Asia. A 2019 U.S. Department of Defense report on Indo-Pacific strategy begins with the sentence, “The Indo-Pacific is the Department of Defense’s priority theater.” Reflecting on U.S. policy in the region, Pres. Xi Jinping of China stated in 2023 that “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-around containment, encirclement, and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.”
History of the Indo-Pacific concept
The term Indo-Pacific was first coined and conceptualized by German geopolitician Karl Haushofer in the 1920s, though his vision differed significantly from the term’s contemporary usage. Haushofer, recognizing the demographic and economic importance of the region, imagined an Indo-Pacific region where Japan, China, and India, liberated from colonial domination, would align themselves with Germany in a struggle against the imperialist forces of the United Kingdom, United States, and western Europe.
The modern interpretation of the Indo-Pacific emerged in a 2007 speech delivered by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the Indian parliament, titled “Confluence of the Two Seas.” Abe described a partnership through which Japanese influence in the Pacific Ocean and Indian influence in the Indian Ocean, in partnership with the United States and Australia, could secure shipping routes and promote freedom and prosperity in the region. Shortly after Abe’s address, the term became commonplace in foreign policy discussions within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, or Quad), an informal security grouping of Australia, Japan, India, and the United States as four like-minded democracies in the region.
In 2019 the United States published a policy document formalizing the “shared vision” of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” an umbrella term to describe the policy goals of the United States and its allies in the region. In 2022 the Biden administration unveiled the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a trade initiative initially comprising the U.S. and 12 allies with an open invitation for other countries to join, with the stated pillars of: (1) free and fair trade, (2) supply chain resilience, (3) clean energy, decarbonization, and sustainable infrastructure, and (4) tax and anti-corruption mechanisms. Following the United States’ lead, numerous American allies have published strategic documents outlining their policies toward the Indo-Pacific region.
Biogeography and climate change
The Indo-Pacific is a region of immense biodiversity, crucial to the fields of marine biology and oceanography as well as geopolitics. Areas like the Coral Triangle, the Sunda Shelf, and the Great Barrier Reef are home to diverse flora and fauna. However, climate change poses significant threats to both human and animal life within the region. Rising sea levels are a critical issue, with numerous island countries losing habitable land at a rapid rate. Increasing frequency of extreme weather events is causing economic loss and displacement. Additionally, increasing sea temperatures and ocean acidification are leading to the degradation of critical ecosystems such as coral reefs, causing many animal species to become endangered as a result of habitat loss.
India faces intensified monsoons and heat waves due to climate change, while China struggles with severe flooding and water scarcity. The U.S., Japan, and Korea are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather. Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change, and the Asian Development Bank predicts that ASEAN’s economy could shrink by 11 percent by the end of the 21st century due to environmental issues. Numerous Indo-Pacific countries have taken steps to mitigate these challenges, such as Indonesia’s leadership of the World Economic Forum’s Ocean 20 initiative (an international engagement group dedicated to marine sustainability) and the establishment of several marine protected areas throughout the region by various countries. Nonetheless, climate change remains a critical concern both regionally and globally.
Outlook and future prospects
At the 2024 Shangri-La dialogue, tensions ran high over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, following recent incidents in which Philippine vessels were rammed and blasted with high-pressure water cannons by Chinese coast guard ships. Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., in the opening keynote address of the conference, criticized “illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions” in the region, and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that American commitment to the Philippines is “ironclad.”
Also at the 2024 Shangri-La dialogue, Austin delivered a speech titled “The New Convergence in the Indo-Pacific,” in which he highlighted military and industrial integration between the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies. He stated: “With Japan, we’re developing a Glide Phase Interceptor to counter hypersonic threats. With India, we’ve made historic progress on coproducing fighter-jet engines and armored vehicles.” He also said: “The recently passed National-Security Supplemental also included major investments in our submarine industrial base to help strengthen our AUKUS partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom.”
The evolving U.S.-China rivalry will significantly shape the region’s future; how other regional powers like India, Japan, Australia, and the ASEAN bloc navigate this bipolar tension will also be crucial. Some observers, analysts, and countries perceive U.S. presence in the region as stabilizing, while others argue that it heightens regional tensions. Both the U.S. and China face complex political and economic challenges, both domestically and internationally. The region’s future will also be heavily influenced by non-traditional security threats such as cyber warfare and climate change; thus, the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific continues to evolve.