Central to Huntington’s thesis in The Clash of Civilizations is the assumption that the post-Cold War world would regroup into regional alliances based on religious beliefs and historical attachments to various “civilizations.” Identifying three prominent groupings—Western Christianity (Roman Catholicism and Protestantism), Orthodox Christianity (Russian and Greek), and Islam, with additional influences from Hinduism and Confucianism—he predicted that the progress of globalization would be severely constrained by religio-political barriers. The result would be a “multipolar world.” Huntington’s view differed markedly from those who prophesied a standardized, homogenized global culture.

There is, however, considerable ethnographic evidence, gathered by anthropologists and sociologists, that refutes this model of civilizational clash and suggests instead a rapid diffusion of religious and cultural systems throughout the world. Islam is one case in point, given that it constitutes one of the fastest-growing religions in the United States, France, and Germany—supposed bastions of Western Christianity. Before the end of the 20th century, entire arrondissements (districts) of Paris were dominated by Muslims, the majority of them French citizens born and reared in France. Thirty-five percent of students in the suburban Dearborn, Michigan, public school system were Muslim in 2001, making the provision of halal (“lawful” under Islam) meals at lunchtime a hot issue in local politics. By the start of the 21st century, Muslims of Turkish origin constituted the fastest-growing sector of Berlin’s population, and, in northern England, the old industrial cities of Bradford and Newcastle had been revitalized by descendants of Pakistani and Indian Muslims who immigrated during the 1950s and ’60s.

From its inception, Christianity has been an aggressively proselytizing religion with a globalizing agenda. Indeed, the Roman Catholic Church was arguably the first global institution, having spread rapidly throughout the European colonial world and beyond. Today, perhaps the fastest-growing religion is evangelical Christianity. Stressing the individual’s personal experience of divinity (as opposed to priestly intercession), evangelicalism has gained wide appeal in regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, presenting serious challenges to established Catholic churches. Following the collapse of Soviet power in 1991, the Russian Orthodox church began the process of rebuilding after more than seven decades of repression. At the same time, evangelical missionaries from the United States and Europe shifted much of their attention from Latin America and Africa to Russia, alarming Russian Orthodox leaders. By 1997, under pressure from Orthodox clergy, the Russian government promoted legislation to restrict the activities of religious organizations that had operated in Russia for less than 15 years, effectively banning Western evangelical missionaries. The debate over Russian religious unity continues, however, and, if China is any guide, such legislation could have little long-term effect.

In China, unauthorized “house churches” became a major concern for Communist Party officials who attempted to control Muslim, Christian, and Buddhist religious activity through state-sponsored organizations. Many of the unrecognized churches are syncretic in the sense that they combine aspects of local religion with Christian ideas. As a result they have been almost impossible to organize, let alone control.

Social scientists confirm the worldwide resurgence, since the late 20th century, of conservative religion among faiths such as Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and even Shinto in Japan and Sikhism in India. The social and political connotations of these conservative upsurges are unique to each culture and religion. For example, some sociologists have identified Christian evangelicalism as a leading carrier of modernization: its emphasis on the Bible is thought to encourage literacy, while involvement in church activities can teach administrative skills that are applicable to work environments. As a sociologist of religion, Berger argues that “there may be other globalizing popular movements [today], but evangelicalism is clearly the most dynamic.”

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nation-state: Cultural globalization

Demographic influences

Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” thesis assumes that the major East Asian societies constitute an alliance of “Confucian” cultures that share a common heritage in the teachings of Confucius, the ancient Chinese sage. Early 21st-century lifestyles in Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Taipei, and Hong Kong, however, show far more evidence of globalization than Confucianization. The reputed hallmarks of Confucianism—respect for parental authority and ancestral traditions—are no more salient in these cities than in Boston, London, or Berlin. This is a consequence of (among other things) a steady reduction in family size that has swept through East Asian societies since the 1980s. State-imposed restrictions on family size, late childbearing, and resistance to marriage among highly educated, working women have undermined the basic tenets of the Confucian family in Asia.

Birth rates in Singapore and Japan, in fact, have fallen below replacement levels and are at record low levels in Hong Kong; birth rates in Beijing, Shanghai, and other major Chinese cities are also declining rapidly. These developments mean that East Asia—like Europe—could face a fiscal crisis as decreasing numbers of workers are expected to support an ever-growing cohort of retirees. By 2025, China is projected to have 274 million people over age 60—more than the entire 1998 population of the United States. The prospects for other East Asian countries are far worse: 17.2 percent of Japan’s 127 million people were over age 65 in 2000; by 2020 that percentage could rise to 27.

Meanwhile, Asia’s “Confucian” societies face a concurrent revolution in family values: the conjugal family (centring on the emotional bond between wife and husband) is rapidly replacing the patriarchal joint family (focused on support of aged parents and grandparents). This transformation is occurring even in remote, rural regions of northwest China where married couples now expect to reside in their own home (“neolocal” residence) as opposed to the house or compound of the groom’s parents (“patrilocal” residence). The children produced by these conjugal units are very different from their older kin who were reared in joint families: today’s offspring are likely to be pampered only children known as “Little Emperors” or “Little Empresses.” Contemporary East Asian families are characterized by an ideology of consumerism that is diametrically opposed to the neo-authoritarian Confucian rhetoric promoted by political leaders such as Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Hong Kong’s Tung Chee-hwa at the turn of the 21st century.

Italy, Mexico, and Sweden (among other countries) also experienced dramatic reductions in family size and birth rates during the late 20th century. Furthermore, new family formations are taking root, such as those of the transnational workers who maintain homes in more than one country. Multi-domiciled families were certainly evident before the advent of cheap air travel and cellular phones, but new technologies have changed the quality of life (much for the better) in diaspora communities. Thus, the globalization of family life is no longer confined to migrant workers from developing economies who take low-paying jobs in advanced capitalist societies. The transnational family is increasingly a mark of high social status and affluence.