The Asian future would be determined above all by the outcome of the civil war in China, a war that had never totally ceased even during the Japanese invasion and occupation. In 1945, Truman reaffirmed America’s commitment to a “strong, united, and democratic China” and dispatched Marshall to seek a truce and a coalition government between Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists at Chungking and Mao Zedong’s Communists in Yen-an. Neither side, however, had any intention of compromising with the other, and fighting resumed in October 1946. At first the United States imposed an arms embargo, but after May 1947 it extended aid to Chiang—a policy aptly described as “neutrality against the Communists.”

Stalin, having blundered badly in China in the 1920s, kept up correct relations with the Nationalists on the assumption that Chiang was too strong to defeat but not strong enough to defy Soviet interests in Manchuria, Mongolia, and Sinkiang. The U.S.S.R. concluded a treaty of friendship with the Nationalist government on August 14, 1945. Soviet policy at that time was to depict Mao as a mere agrarian reformer and to call for a coalition government. Having won Chiang’s blessing, the Soviets systematically looted Manchuria of industrial equipment and reassumed their old rights on the Chinese Eastern railway. At the same time, Molotov insisted that the United States withdraw its advisers.

Chiang’s forces advanced on all fronts until they captured Yen-an itself in March 1947, but the rapid occupation of North China and Manchuria, with American aid but against American advice, overextended the Nationalist army and tied it to cities and railroad lines. Corrupt officers also sold vast numbers of U.S. weapons to the enemy and siphoned off much of the $2,000,000,000 in U.S. aid into personal fortunes. When the Communists counterattacked at the end of 1947, Nationalist units were left isolated in the cities or simply melted away. The Communists took Tientsin and Peking in January 1949 and opened a southward offensive in April. By June their army had grown to 1,500,000 men and Chiang’s had shrunk to 2,100,000. On August 5 a State Department White Paper announced the cessation of all aid to the Nationalists and concluded that “the ominous result of the civil war in China is beyond the control of the government of the United States.” The remaining Nationalists fled to the island of Formosa (Taiwan), and the Communists officially proclaimed the People’s Republic of China at Peking on October 1, 1949. Only then did Stalin recognize the Maoist regime and negotiate to return Port Arthur and the Manchurian railway to Chinese control.

The fall of China to Communism, following hard on the Berlin blockade and the first Soviet A-bomb test, was a terrific blow to the United States. The disaster gave Republicans a stick with which to beat the Truman administration, while the perjury of Alger Hiss (a high-ranking State Department officer, president of the Carnegie Endowment for World Peace, and erstwhile Communist agent) lent credence to charges that Communist sympathizers were at work in Washington. On February 9, 1950, Senator Joseph R. McCarthy claimed to know the identities of 205 State Department officials tainted by Communism. Over the course of four years of congressional hearings McCarthy used innuendo and intimidation to propound charges that, in virtually every case, proved groundless. Nonetheless, the tide of suspicion he incited—or exploited—ironically made him, as Truman said, “the greatest asset that the Kremlin has.” Not only did his behaviour besmirch the image of the United States but it also bequeathed the charge of “McCarthyism” as an impregnable defense to be used by all manner of leftists.

The original question—Who lost China?—had been answered by the White Paper: America was not omnipotent and China was not America’s to lose. Misperception of Asian realities and the “Europe-first” bias of the East Coast establishment, most Democrats, and the army certainly contributed to the debacle, however. “Asia-firsters,” including the much less influential West Coast establishment, most Republicans, and the navy, rued the equanimity with which the administration witnessed the collapse of the Nationalists. For his part, Stalin must have found it equally mysterious that the United States would go to the brink of war over Berlin and spend billions to aid western Europe, then stand aside while the world’s most populous nation went Communist and shrug that it would “wait for the dust to settle” (Acheson’s phrase).